MELISSA: Very tricky and uncertain forecast. First image is the hand drawn scenarios the way it seems. Second image is every computer model we have that ran today. The short is a slower developing storm is more likely to take track A (or something close to it) and a faster developing storm is more likely to take track B or something similar.
A: could stall or sit and spin off the coast of Jamaica or Haiti for a few days later this week… then odds would favor major development largely due to extremely warm water and lighter wind shear in the western Caribbean
B: still could slow down or briefly stall, but would try and cross Hispaniola and could possibly be a major flood and rain threat
For Florida, we watch without worry for now is how I would frame it, but I do not want to rule out major changes or anything definitively more yet. There are a handful of ensemble computer models that are close enough to be of some concern for more notable impact to south FL/the Keys/Bahamas early next week. But overall the risk for any impact in Florida is definitely low and not a current concern.
Cruisers or vacationers to the Caribbean, regardless of track a potential very strong major hurricane could produce major surf and itinerary impacts later this week/early next week.
Each line in the 2nd image is a different model simulation.
