NASSAU, The Bahamas — A Hurricane Warning remained in effect for the central and southeast Bahamas late Monday night, October 27, 2025. This includes Exuma and its cays, Ragged Island, Rum Cay, Long Island, San Salvador, Cat Island, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, Mayaguana, and Inagua.
A Hurricane Warning means that Hurricane conditions are expected in the mentioned islands within 36 hours.
Tropical Storm and hurricane conditions are expected to impact the islands of the southeast Bahamas beginning Tuesday, and the central Bahamas on Wednesday through Thursday of this week according to Meteorologist Geoffrey Greene, Deputy Director at The Bahamas Department of Meteorology.
Deputy Director Greene said potential impacts associated with Hurricane Melissa, should it continue to move along the forecasted track, include prolonged periods of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal inundation to the islands in the central and southeast Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands, beginning Tuesday through Thursday.
“However, the magnitude of potential impacts depends on the intensity of Melissa as it moves through the central and southeast Bahamas (as) Melissa is forecast to interact with major mountainous landmarks, such as those in Jamaica and Cuba or Hispaniola, which could potentially weaken the system slightly as it nears the southeast and central Bahamas late Tuesday and Wednesday.”
Greene said: “A total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected over the southeast Bahamas on Tuesday and into Wednesday, resulting in severe flooding in the islands. Storm surge of 4 to 6 feet above normally dry ground is possible in the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.”
According to Alert #10 issued by The Bahamas Department of Meteorology, at 9pm Monday, the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.6 degrees north and longitude 78.6 degrees west, or about 155 miles Southwest of Kingston, Jamaica; 435 miles south-southwest of Duncan Town, Ragged Island; 480 miles Southwest of Salina Point, Acklins; 435 miles Southwest of Matthew Town, Inagua; 530 miles Southwest of Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands; 540 miles Southwest of Abraham’s Bay, Mayaguana, and 580 miles south of New Providence.
Hurricane Melissa is moving slowly toward the northwest near 2 miles per hour. A slow turn toward the north was expected Monday night, followed by a turn toward the northeast at slightly faster forward speed on Tuesday. A northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the core of Melissa was expected to move near or over Jamaica by early Tuesday morning; across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeast or central Bahamas on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning means that Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the mentioned islands within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that Hurricane conditions could be experienced within the mentioned islands within 48 hours.
Hurricane-force winds from Melissa extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.
Maximum sustained winds are near 175 miles per hour with higher gusts. Melissa is a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The Met Office reports that some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall in Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely powerful major hurricane. It will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the Southeast Bahamas.
Deputy Director Greene said residents in the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands should have completed preparations for the possibility of tropical storm and/or hurricane conditions beginning late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, and in the central Bahamas on Wednesday through Thursday.
“Residents in the northern and northwest Bahamas,” Greene said, “should closely monitor Alerts issued by the Bahamas Department of Meteorology and be ready to prepare for possible Tropical Storm or Hurricane conditions in the next few days.”
